Before Beijing Olympic Games,President Rogge of the International Olympic Committee said that,“Beijing Olympic Games has given us a key to well know the rapid development of China in recent years.”
Nowadays,the worldwide famous Beijing Olympic Games came to an end already,and the Chinese economic tendency after the Olympic Games has become a hot issue.
If the Olympic Games will become the divide of Chinese economy
Recently,some overseas said that,with the completion of the Olympic Games,Chinese economy of 2009 and 2010 will be difficult.
“Undoubtedly,the promotion of the Olympic Games has largely pushed forward the economic and social development of Beijing; however,due to the economic aggregate of Beijing accounts for a very small part only,the estimation of the driving effect of the promotion of the Olympic Games to the Chinese economy shall not be too high.” President Hu Jintao briefed during an interview by the foreign media.
The statistics shows that,during 2002-2007,the average Beijing’s investment for Beijing Olympic Games per year was lower than 1% of the total domestic investment for the fixed assets per year. Viewing from the construction scale,the completion area of Beijing Olympic Games project is 0.7183 million square meters,only accounting for 0.0139% of the completion area of the domestic houses in 2007.
“If comparing the Chinese economy to the sea,then,when a frog jumps into it,its impact on the sea could be ignored.” Professor Zhang Xiaode of the National School of Administration,with a concurrent post of the deputy secretary-general of China Association for Public Economic Research,is of the opinion that,the Olympic Games could really stimulate the Chinese economy,while after the Olympic Games,the Chinese economy will still mainly be affected by the macropolicy and the global economic tendency. As for the Chinese concept is concerned,the Olympic Games means a worldwide marketing,and its direct driving impact on the development of the Chinese economy is very little.
Some economists are optimistic to the development of the Chinese economy after the Olympic Games. Li Yining is of the opinion that,Chinese economy downturn will not occur after the Olympic Games. After completion of the Olympic Games,more and more consequent demands will keep step with it immediately,and China does not worry about the new investment hot spot.
And more important is that,currently,the Chinese economy is in a level of the low and middle-income country,and urbanization and industrialization are in great demand of the infrastructure investment. Zhang Xiaode said that,regardless the Olympic Games,the economy needs development.
In recent days,JP Morgan has released a research report,which shows that,after the Olympic Games,the probability of a slower Chinese economy is small. Viewing from the experiences of the countries hosting the Olympic Games in the past,those Olympic Games host countries with considerably larger economic scale and rapid economic growth Olympic Games host countries are difficult to be impacted by the Olympic Games. The prediction statistics of JP Morgan shows that,in 2008,the gross domestic product of China will reach 4.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
The year of 2008 is the Olympics year of Beijing,and it is also the year for the periodical adjustment of the growth of the Chinese economy. And,the simultaneous occurrence is just a coincidence,there is no necessary connection. At present,with regard to the Chinese economy,its basic situation is that it still keeps a stable and rapid growth,while,it has lowered down in some aspects. Moreover,it is the self adjustment of the Chinese economy under the effect of the macroeconomic control policy measures,and it will develop facing the expectation by the macroeconomic control.
As the long-term development of the Chinese economy does not begin due to the Olympic Games,it will not end due to the Olympic Games certainly. With regard to Beijing Olympic Games,it will have low tide after the grand climax unavoidably,but,we could ensure that,the economy downturn will neither appear after Beijing Olympic Games,nor the turning point of the economic development. Generally speaking,“Bird’s Nest” will not be “deserted”,and it will be prosperous still.
Far-reaching Impact on confidence and development concept
As the greatest athletics pageant and gathering among nations of the current human society,the Olympic Games has attracted all the people around the world. When the people from all places around the world experience China,they not only feel the great charming of Chinese culture,but also being affected by the vital Chinese economy. The confidence arising from successfully hosting the Olympic Games is an important mind wealth for the future development of China.
Based on the experience from countries which host the Olympic Games and its own characteristics,China has taken various measures,so as to develop the Olympic economy,enrich the concept of Olympic economy,and expand the impact of the Olympic economy as well. The hosting of the Olympic Games has instilled vitality into the Chinese development,and has a radiation effect in the aspects of the regional development,industrial structure development,national quality enhancement,ecological environment improvement,etc.
The concept of “green Olympics,sci-tech Olympics,and people’s Olympics” is the specific scientific development concept,and it has a far-reaching impact on the further reform and opening,promotion of the economic structure adjustment,and transformation development mode. Mr. Chenjian,Executive President of Beijing Olympics Research Council of Economy,said that,“these far-reaching advantages are for all the Chinese people.”
Taking the opportunity of hosting the Olympic Games,China has accelerated the industrial structure adjustment. “The Eleventh-Five-Year-Plan” definitely indicates that,till 2010,the national energy consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP will be reduced by 20%. Taking Beijing City as an example,the contribution rate of the adjustment of the economic structure to the energy saving and emission reduction is above 60% at least.
In addition,the Olympic Games has outlast and more permanent positive role to upgrade the domestic national quality,improve the investment environment,enhance the openness,and advance the international image. The success of the Olympic Games will largely push forward our all-dimensional,multi-layered and wide-ranging communication and cooperation with the world.
President Borger of the Market Development Commission of the International Olympic Committee said that,Beijing has changed in the economic status,city view,modernized civilization level,and pace to incorporate into the international market,moreover,huge changes will happen continuously.
“Viewing from the confidence,the impact of the Olympic Games on China is huge.” Chairman Li Wei of Henan SYNEAR FOOD HOLDINGS LIMITED,the exclusive supplier of Beijing Olympic Games,China,one country which has experienced reform and opening for 30 years and with continuous and rapid economic development,will incorporate into the international market with more open thought and more active attitude.
Beijing Olympic Games will largely promote the psychological expectation of the investor of thinking highly of Chinese economy. Li Wei said that,“it is hard to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the psychological expectation on the Chinese economy growth,however,it can be certain that,the Olympic Games is one of the indispensable driving factors to make this round of Chinese economy has kept rapid growth for several years,and this factor will follow on.”
Confronting challenges for the Chinese economy
After Sydney Olympic Games (2000),small downturn of GDP growth rate,largely declined investment,and declined real estate industry appeared in New South Wales of Sydney,and it seriously affected the development of the local economy.
Sydney is neither the first one nor the last one to suffer the “Olympics valley effect”. After its suffering,in the interest of revelry for 16 days,Athens hosting the summer Olympic Games (2004) has fallen into in debt of 10 years.
“Olympics valley effect” is the shadow which is hard to shake off for most countries hosting the Olympic Games. The current international economic environment is under the fierce fluctuation,such as,USA subprime mortgage crisis,headline inflation of the world economy,and international high food and oil price have impacted the Chinese economy one after the other. Besides the delight,the Chinese people is hard to avoid anxiety,after all,few or no countries hosting the Olympic Games could completely get rid of the economic risk of the post-Olympics era.
After the reform and opening throughout 30 years,the overall national strength and the economic potential growth rate has a stable improvement,together with the large economic aggregate,wide terrain,complete economic system,and considerably larger room for manoeuvre,accordingly,the completion of the Olympic Games will not impact the fundamental plane of the national economic development. Whereas,the questions of how to avoid the rapider price rise,keep a reasonable growth speed,as well as promote the Chinese economy to develop soundly and rapidly are also the important challenge for the Chinese economy after the Olympic Games.
Since 2008,China has suffered the historically infrequent disasters with severe chilling snow and freeze,oversize earthquake catastrophe,and other challenges by uncertain factors,but we have pressed forward in face of difficulties. In the first half year,the national economy has an increase rate of 10.4% year-on-year,that is,with a increase rate of 10.6% and 10.1% in the first quarter and the second quarter,which is in a gradual decline tendency since the third quarter of 2007.
The relevant persons of the State Development and Reform Commission said that,“The appearance of this tendency is not only the result of the impact of the important variation of the international economic tendency,but also the result of the deep conflict accumulation of the national economic development,and the normal adjustment of the national economic growth period as well.”
After the Olympic Games,the national economy will face the impact of a series of uncertain and unstable factors,including,impact of the weakened American economy on the Chinese export growth,possible periodical adjustment to the development of the real estate industry,and difficult enterprise operation due to price rise of raw materials,and all of these will bring severe challenges to the stable and rapid economic development,which we shall pay high attention to.
Mr. Wang Yiming,Deputy President of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research of the State Development and Reform Commission represented that,continuously rapid economic development will not only confront the periodical adjustment and economic transformation pressure,and suffer the overlapping impact by the “post-Olympic effect” in a certain degree. Therefore,we shall actively magnify the positive impact of the Olympic Games on the economic development,and effectively deal with all possible negative effects as well.
Chinese economy continues keeping stable and rapid growth
In the face of the challenge from various problems and uncertain factors,due to China has the largest market,stable political environment,together with three major economic driving factors of the investment,foreign demand,and domestic demand,and increasingly mature macroeconomic control means,Chinese economy could still keep vigorous,thus,it could offer important guarantee for continuously rapid economic development.
Wang Yiming is of the opinion that,the Olympic Games will only impact the expectation,and the objective of the “one-keeping-one-controlling” is to stabilize the inflation expectation,prevent the overall inflation,well control the balance point between the “growth keeping” and “price controlling”,and ensure the stable and healthy economic development as well.
Owing to the macroeconomic control,the risk of the overheated Chinese economy has been assimilated,and the economic growth has become slower. This kind of “slow-down” is not a passive one,but the “slow-down” which is pursued by the macroeconomic control,and the representation of that the “two-controlling” regulation and control policy which is put forward at the beginning of the year has played its role.
It is predictable that,the national economic growth will still keep rapider speed,with the reasons of: firstly,the medium and long-term fundamental plane of the Chinese economic development is excellent; secondly,the short-term dynamics of “three carriages”,the investment,consumption and export,to drive the economic growth will not be reduced.
Additionally,with the guide of the energy saving and emission reduction and other industrial policies,the national economic and industrial structure transformation have been distinctly accelerated,and the economic operation quality has been largely upgraded as well.
There were the economists caring about that,even though the impact of the Olympic Games on the real economy is limited,the investors have formed superior expectation,and capital price has became overvalued due to speculation and the stock market and the property market have been adjusted rapidly after the completion of the Olympic Games accordingly.
“Currently,the market situation has changed already,timely and effective macroeconomic control has made the risk of the overheated Chinese economy eliminated,and the economy operation could be steered to the normal operation gradually.” The economist Fan Gang represented that,as the risk of the stock market and the property market has been released largely and adjustment has been made to the energy price,consequently,it is not necessary to worry about the Chinese economy after Olympic Games excessively.
Presently,China is in the medium term of the industrialization. Some experts have predicted that,the growth rate of Chinese economy,7%-8% or more will last another 15-20 years at least. And,Chinese investment will still in a booming status,and the space and potential of the economic development is still very large. As long as the policy regulation is proper,the national economy could freely deal with variations of all kinds of domestic and international conditions,and continuously keep stable and rapid growth as well.
Professor Zhang Wang,with a concurrent post of the associate researcher of Shanghai Banking Regulatory Commission said that,“And,the abovementioned are that other countries hosting the Olympic Games could not be compared.” On the past track,the operation of the Chinese economy has brand-new dynamic basis,in addition,as the fundamental plane to support the Chinese economy growth does not change,the Chinese economy will be operated on the track of stable and rapid growth just as in the past.
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